无人谈论的贸易战
在美国与中国接触的喧嚣中，日本和韩国最近也卷入了贸易战。今年 7 月 4 日，当美国人正在庆祝自己的独立和自由时，韩国人却想起了自己的殖民历史，因为他们的邻国和前殖民者日本开始实施新的贸易制裁。最初是韩国最高法院的一项裁决，现在已经升级为一场严重的经济战，威胁到亚洲和世界的一个关键技术来源。
虽然这场争端才刚刚持续几个月，但殖民主义的根源却始于 1910 年，当时日本帝国入侵并占领了整个朝鲜半岛。在接下来的几十年里，日本帝国不断扩张，控制了东南亚大部分地区，甚至中国部分地区，直到第二次世界大战结束时才最终灭亡。在日本占领朝鲜期间，三菱和新日铁等日本公司经常征召韩国男女进行无偿强迫劳动。
然而，最近，韩国最高法院于 2018 年 10 月和 11 月裁定日本公司必须为这些历史不公做出赔偿。随后，7 月 4 日，日本政府采取报复措施，对韩国制造微芯片和技术产品所必需的材料贸易实施限制。由于韩国缺乏回应，日本将韩国从其“白名单”中除名，以此强化其信息，其影响超出了技术行业。韩国则将日本从其同等的顶级优先贸易伙伴名单中除名。在这种深度制裁的回应中，韩国和日本卷入了一场激烈且充满政治色彩的贸易战。虽然许多贸易战都被理解为对不平等贸易条件的回应，但日本和韩国的贸易战似乎特别带有政治动机，因为其动机是为了与日本的殖民历史和解。
而且，目前似乎看不到明确的结束迹象。两国的公众舆论都高度支持各自政府的政策，因此首尔和东京都有政治动机继续其政策，甚至升级政策。由于两国明年都将举行联邦选举，因此两国都承受不起违背公众舆论的后果。
此外，与朝鲜核威胁等其他争端不同，没有任何外国愿意帮助缓解紧张局势并在这两个邻国之间进行调解。美国传统上一直扮演调解人的角色，但由于与中国的贸易问题，华盛顿无暇顾及日本和韩国。此外，美国历史上与日本和韩国都是盟友，因此它几乎没有动机介入，否则会危及与这两个国家的关系。
事实上，迅速解决这一冲突符合世界上几乎每个国家的利益。世界依赖韩国的科技产品，从微芯片到全加工的智能手机。韩国科技产业甚至对苹果和戴尔等西方巨头来说也是必需品。韩国供应着全球 60% 的 DRAM 内存芯片。然而，韩国科技产业却依赖日本的化学品，如氟化聚酰胺，作为制造半导体和计算机芯片的中间产品。
鉴于事关重大，必须尽快解决这场经济战。这场贸易战高度政治化，影响了政客们的理性判断。这是有害的，尤其是当涉及数百万日本和韩国公民的经济前景以及全球科技产业时。对中美贸易战的关注与对日韩贸易战的关注之间没有平衡。两国在全球经济中都发挥着至关重要的作用，影响着数十亿人的日常生活。随着亚洲一些最大的经济体陷入经济战，国际社会的忽视可能会对整个世界产生影响。
The Trade War That No One Is Talking About
Amid the noise of the United States' engagement with China, Japan and South Korea have recently engaged in their own trade war. On July 4 of this year, while Americans were celebrating their own independence and freedom, South Koreans were reminded of their own colonial history as their neighbor and former colonizer, Japan, began to impose new trade sanctions. What started off as a South Korean Supreme Court ruling has now escalated into a crippling economic war that threatens a key source of technology for Asia and the world.
Photo by Andre Benz / Unsplash
Although this particular dispute is now only a few months old, the roots of colonialism began in 1910 when the Japanese Empire invaded and occupied the entirety of the Korean peninsula. Over the course of the next few decades, the Japanese Empire would aggressively expand and control most of South-East Asia and even parts of China, until its ultimate demise at the end of the Second World War. During Japanese occupation of Korea, Japanese companies, such as Mitsubishi and Nippon Steel, often times conscripted Korean men and women for forced unpaid labor.
Recently, however, the South Korean Supreme Court ruled in October and November of 2018 that Japanese companies must pay reparations for these historical injustices. Consequently, on July fourth, the Japanese government retaliated by imposing limitations on the trade of materials essential to the construction of microchips and technological products in South Korea. Incensed by South Korea’s lack of response, Japan reinforced its message by taking South Korea off its “white-list” of favored trading partners, leading to ramifications beyond the technology industry. South Korea reacted by removing Japan from their equivalent top tier of preferred trading partners. In this deep spiral of sanctions in response, South Korea and Japan have interlocked in a vicious and politically charged trade war. While many trade wars are understood as responses to unequal terms of trade, Japan and South Korea's trade war seems to be particularly coded in political motives, given that its impetus was about reconciling with Japan's colonial past.
And, there seems to be no clear end in sight. Public opinion in both countries are highly supportive of their respective government’s policies, so both Seoul and Tokyo have political incentive to continue their policies or even escalate. With federal elections occurring within the next year for both countries, neither country can afford to buck against public opinion.
Moreover, unlike other disputes like the nuclear threat of North Korea, no foreign power is willing to aid in diffusing the tension and mediate between the two neighboring countries. The United States has traditionally adopted the role of the mediator but with its own trade worries with China, Washington has no attention that it can spare to Japan and South Korea. Furthermore, the US has historically allied with both Japan and South Korea, so it has little incentive to be involved, lest it risk its relationship with either country.
Indeed, almost every country in the world has a vested interest in the swift resolution of this conflict. The world relies on South Korea for its technology products, ranging from microchips to completely processed smartphones. The Korean technology industry is a necessity even for Western giants, such as Apple and Dell. Korea supplies 60 percent of the world’s DRAM memory chips. However, the Korean technology industry conversely relies on Japan for its chemicals, such as fluorinated polyamides, as an intermediary product for the making of semiconductors and computer chips.
With stakes this high, it is crucial that the economic war be resolved with urgency. The highly politicized nature of this particular trade war clouds rational judgement of politicians. This is detrimental, especially when the chips in play are the economic outlooks of millions of Japanese and Korean citizens, as well as the global technology industry. There is not a trade-off between attention paid to the US-China trade war and that of Japan and South Korea. Both play a crucial role in the global economy and affect billions of people’s day-to-day lives. As some of the biggest economic powers in Asia spiral into economic warfare, international neglect could have ramifications that affect the world at large.
